FX and bond markets eye global PMIs and central bank signals this week

FX and bond markets brace for PMI data and global monetary signals

Tariff tensions, inflation risks and regional growth figures in focus for the week of April 21

Currency and fixed-income markets enter the final week of April with heightened sensitivity to economic data and monetary policy signals. With U.S. tariffs clouding the global outlook, traders are zeroing in on purchasing managers’ surveys (PMIs), inflation prints, and rate decisions to gauge the economic fallout and possible central bank reactions.

In the U.S., attention will center on how recent tariff escalations are affecting business sentiment, while Asia will provide critical inflation and growth figures amid continued trade tensions. European markets face a light week due to the Easter holidays, but key sentiment indicators could offer early warnings of slowing momentum.

United States: PMIs to offer first look at tariff fallout

With volatility easing but uncertainty lingering, markets will closely analyze Wednesday’s preliminary U.S. PMIs for April. These flash readings on manufacturing and services are expected to reveal early business responses to President Trump’s sweeping tariff plan and the subsequent 90-day pause for most countries.

“The PMI report will be very interesting amid growth concerns from trade uncertainty that could show up in lower new orders,” analysts at Danske Bank noted.

Also on the radar:

• University of Michigan’s final April consumer sentiment index (Friday)

• March new home sales (Wednesday), existing home sales (Thursday)

• Durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims (Thursday)

• Treasury auctions: 2-year (Tuesday), 5-year (Wednesday), 7-year (Thursday)

Canada: Retail data to preview tariff exposure

Friday’s release of February retail sales offers a backward glance at Canada’s economy before U.S. tariffs were announced. With the Bank of Canada maintaining its 2.75% rate amid global headwinds, policymakers remain cautious, citing “risks and uncertainties” tied to U.S. trade.

Eurozone: PMIs and sentiment surveys dominate a quiet calendar

Wednesday’s flash PMIs for France, Germany and the eurozone will be the data highlight, shedding light on how firms are reacting to global trade disruptions.

“The PMIs will be the first big test of the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs announcements on growth,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said.

Additional eurozone indicators:

• Consumer confidence flash estimate (Tuesday)

• France consumer sentiment and Germany Ifo business climate (Thursday)

• Sovereign debt auctions from Germany, Slovakia, and Italy

United Kingdom: PMIs and consumer sentiment to guide outlook

UK flash PMIs for April, due Wednesday, will reveal whether U.S. tariffs have dented business confidence. While services exports to the U.S. remain tariff-free, broader global weakness could weigh on sentiment.

Other key releases:

• March retail sales and GfK consumer confidence (Friday)

• Gilt auction: October 2043 issue (Thursday)

China: Rate decision signals strategy amid tariff stress

The People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged on Monday (1-year at 3.1%, 5-year at 3.6%), as officials weigh stimulus options against the need for currency stability.

While low inflation and trade stress argue for easing, ING economists believe Beijing may wait for a Fed rate cut before adjusting its policy.

Markets will also monitor any messaging from Chinese officials on U.S. trade negotiations.

Japan: Tokyo CPI and BOJ risk outlook in spotlight

Friday’s Tokyo CPI—a bellwether for national inflation—is forecast to show a 3.2% annual rise in April, up from 2.4%, reflecting new fiscal year price adjustments.

Also in focus:

• BOJ semiannual financial system report (Wednesday)

• 2.6 trillion yen in 2-year note auctions (Thursday)

• BOJ bond purchases (Monday and Friday)

Australia & New Zealand: PMI and trade gauges incoming

Australia’s flash PMIs (Wednesday) are expected to confirm fading business confidence, with S&P Global noting trade uncertainty as a key risk.

New Zealand will report March trade data on Tuesday, offering insight into export performance.

South Korea: First-quarter GDP to show economic stagnation

Korea’s 1Q GDP report (Thursday) is projected to show zero year-on-year growth and just 0.1% quarterly expansion, with wildfires, political instability, and tariffs taking a toll on sentiment and consumption.

Indonesia: Central bank to prioritize currency stability

Bank Indonesia is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday as it deals with rupiah pressure. A potential rate cut may be delayed until late 2025, depending on global trade developments and the dollar's trajectory.

Economists warn that a full tariff implementation by the U.S. could shave 0.5% off Indonesia’s GDP this year.

Malaysia and Singapore: CPI figures in focus

Singapore’s CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 1.2% in March, while Malaysia’s inflation is seen ticking up to 1.8%, led by food and transport. Both countries are expected to maintain accommodative policy, barring major external shocks.

Stay tuned to The Horizons Times for continued coverage of global data, monetary policy shifts, and the FX and bond market response to unfolding trade developments.