Should You Buy Rivian Stock Under $20? Here's What to Know in 2025

Should You Buy Rivian Stock While It's Trading Below $20?

With new affordable models ahead, Rivian may be gearing up for major growth

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) has seen its stock move sideways for years, despite significant sales growth and increased operational scale. Today, the stock trades at under $20 per share — a level it has hovered around for over two years — while the company’s revenue has more than doubled in that time.

This disconnect between financial growth and stock price performance has raised questions among investors. Some analysts argue that the issue lies not in company execution but in market valuation. In 2023, Rivian traded at up to 8 times revenue. Today, that multiple has shrunk to just 3.2 times revenue, despite ongoing improvements in delivery metrics and infrastructure.

This valuation compression could present a buying opportunity — especially with major developments slated for 2026 and beyond.

What are Rivian’s growth prospects in 2025 and 2026?

Rivian is projected to grow sales by a modest 5.4% in 2025. However, in 2026, analysts expect sales to accelerate by roughly 39%, primarily due to the launch of new electric vehicle models.

At present, Rivian’s lineup consists of only two premium models — the R1S SUV and the R1T pickup — both priced between $70,000 and $100,000. These vehicles serve a relatively niche, high-end market segment.

To understand the challenge, look no further than Tesla. While the automaker has several premium offerings, its explosive sales growth came from the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y, which dominate its sales volume with entry-level prices under $50,000.

Rivian aims to follow a similar playbook with the launch of its R2, R3, and R3X models. These vehicles, expected to debut beginning in 2026, are designed to compete in the broader consumer market with lower price tags — a shift that could drastically expand Rivian’s addressable market.
 

Can Rivian repeat Tesla’s breakout success?

If Rivian follows a trajectory similar to Tesla's post-Model 3 release, the potential upside is substantial. From 2017 to 2023, Tesla's sales skyrocketed by 480%, thanks largely to the success of its mass-market vehicles.

Should Rivian achieve a similar growth arc, annual revenue could rise from today’s $5 billion to as much as $30 billion. Using the current price-to-sales ratio of 3.2, that level of revenue would imply a market cap close to $100 billion — a sharp increase from Rivian’s current $17 billion valuation.

However, the pace of that growth will depend heavily on the successful execution of its production roadmap and timely vehicle rollouts.

What risks do investors face?

While the long-term outlook for Rivian may appear promising, there are key risks to consider.

First, scaling up operations and launching multiple new models will demand significant capital. Although Rivian still holds $9.3 billion in cash reserves, future fundraising may be required to support manufacturing expansion and marketing efforts.

Second, execution risk looms large. The R2 vehicle was initially slated for 2025 but has already been delayed to early 2026. Industry precedent suggests that additional delays and higher-than-expected pricing are possible.

Perhaps the most overlooked risk is psychological. With no major new releases expected until 2026 — and full-scale growth possibly delayed until 2027 or 2028 — investors may need to weather extended periods of slow news flow and stock volatility. History shows that such stretches can test even the most patient shareholders.

So, is Rivian a buy under $20?

Rivian stock remains undervalued based on projected long-term growth, especially as new, affordable models approach production. But the road to that potential is neither quick nor guaranteed.

Those considering an investment should be prepared for a long-term commitment — one that may involve enduring delays, volatility, and uncertain timelines. While the upside is real, so is the waiting game.

Stay tuned to The Horizons Times for the latest on EV market dynamics and long-term investing insights.