AfD Ties CDU/CSU in Poll for First Time Amid Coalition Turmoil

AfD Reaches Parity with CDU/CSU in Historic Shift

In a development that signals growing public discontent, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has tied with the center-right CDU/CSU for the first time in a national poll. According to the latest “Sunday Question” poll conducted by the INSA Institute for Bild, both parties now stand at 24%, marking a historic low for the conservative bloc and a record high for the AfD.

The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz and currently in coalition negotiations, has lost six percentage points since the Bundestag election on 23 February, when it won with 28.5% of the vote. In contrast, the AfD, which secured 20.8% in the election, has gained one point since the last poll.

“This is an unprecedented decline in support during the transition period between the Bundestag election and the formation of a government,” said Hermann Binkert, head of the INSA polling institute.

Coalition Instability Deepens

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), expected to form a coalition with the CDU/CSU, remains steady at 16%, offering little leverage for a majority. Meanwhile, the Greens have dropped to 11% (-1), while the Left Party has gained one point, also reaching 11%. No other parties managed to cross the five-percent threshold required to enter the Bundestag.

The survey, which polled 1,206 people between 31 March and 4 April, carries a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The numbers highlight the volatility of the political climate in Germany and suggest waning confidence in Friedrich Merz’s ability to solidify a functioning coalition. The CDU/CSU’s loss of momentum comes at a critical juncture, as negotiations continue behind closed doors with key partners, including the SPD and Greens.

Bundestag Session Canceled Amid Political Tensions

In a move that drew sharp criticism from opposition parties, the Bundestag session scheduled for next week was canceled at the request of the CDU/CSU and SPD. This decision has intensified political tensions, with the AfD, Greens, and Left Party accusing the governing bloc of trying to sideline parliamentary debate.

AfD parliamentary secretary Bernd Baumann accused the CDU/CSU of “fear” and pledged to bring forth the very policy proposals promised by Merz’s party during the campaign. In a video posted on X (formerly Twitter), he said the AfD would take the lead in confronting the government on its electoral promises.

The Greens labeled the cancellation a “dangerous political pause,” especially given current international developments such as former U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade rhetoric. The Left Party went further, calling the move “an affront” to democratic norms.

“The idea that opposition should remain silent during coalition talks is absurd,” a spokesperson for the Left Party said.

Governance Challenges Loom as Public Patience Wears Thin

The current Bundestag convened for the first time on 25 March. Before this, the outgoing parliament had passed a major special funding package for infrastructure and defense, supported by the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens. That legislation required a two-thirds majority—something the new Bundestag, as currently constituted, is unlikely to achieve.

With shifting power balances and growing pressure from a revitalized opposition, the CDU/CSU now faces the dual challenge of rebuilding voter trust and negotiating a viable governing coalition. The party’s declining approval could complicate efforts to pass key legislation in the months ahead.

Germany’s political landscape is entering a period of significant upheaval, with old alliances under strain and new forces gaining ground. As coalition talks drag on and opposition voices grow louder, the path forward for Friedrich Merz and his party appears increasingly uncertain.

Stay tuned to The Horizons Times for the latest updates on Germany’s evolving political dynamics and coalition developments.