Compound heatwaves and droughts surge across Eurasia due to climate shifts

Back-to-back heatwaves and droughts sweeping across Eurasia at unprecedented scale

Study reveals human-driven atmospheric shifts behind surge in compound weather extremes

A surge in extreme heatwaves followed by droughts is unfolding across Eurasia, devastating ecosystems and economies from Ukraine to Mongolia. A new study spanning nearly 300 years of climate data attributes the increase in these destructive compound events to human-caused climate change.

Scientists warn that these patterns—where extreme heat dries the soil and worsens subsequent droughts—are becoming increasingly intense and frequent, far exceeding the natural variability seen in centuries past.

Tree rings unlock nearly 300 years of Eurasian climate history

Led by climate scientist Hans Linderholm of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, the research team analyzed tree ring data from across Eurasia dating back to 1741. These records allowed them to reconstruct historical temperature and precipitation conditions and understand the atmospheric forces driving extreme weather over time.

Their analysis uncovered a striking increase in what they have dubbed the “trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train”—a newly intensified climate pattern in which heat and drought events cascade across the continent. Since the early 2000s, both the size and severity of these anomalies have surged beyond anything recorded in the prior 280 years.

A self-reinforcing climate disaster

The heatwave-drought cycle is especially damaging because of the feedback loop it creates. High temperatures desiccate soil, while the absence of moisture during a drought removes the natural cooling effect that would otherwise reduce heat intensity. This cyclical interaction increases the risk of crop failure, wildfires, and long-term ecological degradation.

“The present trend is just way outside of natural variability,” says Linderholm. “The scale and intensity of these events are something we’ve never seen before.”

Disrupted teleconnections driving change

In addition to rising regional temperatures, the researchers linked the trend to changes in atmospheric teleconnections—global-scale interactions between distant weather systems. Specifically, they point to warming in the North Atlantic and increased rainfall in parts of northern Africa as contributing factors. Both phenomena are consistent with known effects of anthropogenic climate change.

These shifts have altered the positioning of high- and low-pressure systems that typically govern Eurasia’s climate, producing larger and more persistent heat and drought anomalies across the region.

“The new teleconnection pattern has a really distinct strong trend,” says Linderholm. “It means things will most likely go quicker, and there will be more severe impacts.”

Future projections warn of worsening extremes

Model simulations carried out by the team suggest that under all but the most aggressive global emission-reduction scenarios, the situation will continue to deteriorate. Even modest levels of warming are projected to amplify the frequency and severity of these compound weather events.

The consequences could be dire for agriculture, water availability, and human health in already vulnerable regions. “We have difficulty seeing how the most affected places are going to recover,” Linderholm adds.

Eurasia’s climate future hangs in the balance

With climate-driven disruptions now affecting not just local weather but the very architecture of the global atmosphere, researchers are calling for urgent emissions reductions and adaptation measures. Without swift action, the intensifying heatwave-drought cycles across Eurasia may become a defining feature of the continent’s future.

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